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News from money markets
The dollar was largely steady through the morning session, showing very little reaction to slightly softer income and PCE data, and better Chicago ISM and Michigan sentiment indicators. Later though, the dollar picked up broadly. London dollar buying was noted into the weekend and month-end, perhaps exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, helped by the U.K. raising its terror warning to "severe". Aside from the ISIS crisis, Russian president Putin appeared to ramp up rhetoric by addressing rebels directly, praising their success inside Ukraine, according to Russian press outlet RIA.
This week, two economies moved into the “we are growing concerned” column, starting with the EU. As I discussed earlier today, the unemployment rate ticked down .1% to 11.5% in its latest reading while CPI dropped another .1% to .3% Y/Y. As if these numbers weren’t bad enough, private lending contracted again, this time by 1.6% and business sentiment was broadly flat:
Today, two key economic EU indicators were released: unemployment and inflation. Neither had any good news for the EU.
Let's start with inflation, which printed at .3%. The downward march to 0% continues:
The euro reverted to near net unchanged levels against the dollar after a brief rally in the wake of the pan-Eurozone inflation data, which met expectations at 0.3% y/y, dipping from 0.4% y/y in July but not exactly the "significant drop" towards deflation territory that the ECB reportedly would have needed to see if it were to take further policy action at next week's meeting. EUR-USD reached a high of 1.3205 in the immediate wake of inflation data before sliding back to the 1.3175-85 range. We are targeting last September's low at 1.3105 and 1.3000. USD-JPY lifted to the high 103s.
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