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The monthly data for August reported this week was mainly downbeat. Housing permits and starts were down, which impacted the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, up a modest +0.2. Industrial production and capacity utilization both declined. The Empire Manufacturing index improved, while the Philly Manufacturing index was less positive. Producer prices were flat, while consumer prices were down (actually a plus, since the main reason was a decline in the price of gasoline).
After a hectic week, FX trade was fairly quiet in N.Y. on Friday, though the dollar was for the most part, stronger. EUR-USD made a marginal trend low, touching 1.2831, as USD-JPY bounced from 108.60 lows to a peak of 109.10. Yields slipped back slightly as Wall Street faltered moderately. On the data front, leading indicators were the only release, and were generally ignored by markets. Meanwhile, firmer than expected Canadian CPI saw the CAD rally, with USD-CAD touching 1.0887 lows. By the close however, the pairing had clawed back virtually all its losses, touching 1.0978 highs.
This week, both the IMF and OECD issued policy papers that lowered growth projections for the advanced economies and argued that downward risk possibilities had increased. The issuance of both these documents provides a good opportunity to take stock of the economic position of the major NCM (non-currency manipulated countries) countries as well as highlighting the problems they a
The dollar is generally firmer with EUR-USD lower by over 50 pips from yesterday's New York closing levels, having seen a low of 1.2866. A similar price action was seen in other pairings, including Cable, which dropped back under 1.6400 after logging a two-week high at 1.6525 as the market reacted to the decisive "No" to independence outcome of Scotland's referendum. USD-JPY hit a six-year high of 109.46 after Japan's Cabinet Office downgraded its economic assessment, though the yen rebounded during the London AM session, sending the pair back under 109.00.
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